EuroMOMO pooled estimates show expected levels of mortality

This week’s pooled EuroMOMO estimates of all-cause mortality for the participating European countries show expected levels of mortality.

Data from 26 European countries or subnational regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality.

Note on interpretation of data: The number of deaths shown for the three most recent weeks should be interpreted with caution, as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting

Pandemic years omitted in estimation of expected mortality

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the usual mortality pattern was disrupted, and data from the years 2020–2022 had to be excluded from the estimation of expected mortality to avoid bias—particularly in typically stable weeks in spring (weeks 16–25) and autumn (weeks 37–44). By spring 2023, overall European mortality had returned to expected levels across all age groups. Expected mortality is usually based on five years of data, but with the pandemic years excluded, data up to eight years old are now used. Until 2028, both pre- and post-pandemic data will inform the estimates, with the pre-pandemic period initially having more weight. From autumn 2025, post-pandemic data will carry more influence. These changes may affect weekly mortality estimates and the calculated excess mortality reported by EuroMOMO.

Note about data from Ukraine

The EuroMOMO hub regrets to inform that weekly data from Ukraine will not be provided in the coming period, due to the current war in Ukraine.

About EuroMOMO network data sharing and collaboration

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, information on its mortality impact is of major concern. The EuroMOMO network hub receives many questions about the weekly mortality data we present, as well as requests to share the underlying national data. While the network fully supports data sharing, the network hub is not mandated by the participating countries to release any national data. If you are interested in accessing national data, please approach countries individually.

The EuroMOMO network welcomes collaboration with external partners, e.g. about additional analyses and modelling to be performed. If you are interested in engaging with the network about any such collaboration, please forward your ideas to the hub, for wider sharing and dialogue with the network.

Kindly note that any use of data or information originating from the EuroMOMO website must be appropriately quoted and acknowledged.